TheAcsMan

March 17, 2017

Why Did You Do That?

Image result for confused In the final 30 minutes of trading today, as the monthly option cycle was coming to its end, I made one last trade for the day.

I had already surprised myself by not paying attention to the strategy I was planning to execute this morning with Marathon Oil.

I further complicated matters by actually opening 2 new positions today, something I don’t do very often to end the week, unless one of those shares is going ex-dividend to start the coming week.

I also ate into my cash reserves.

Confusing.

Add to that the final trade.

Continue reading “Why Did You Do That?”

March 17, 2017

Why Do Today What You Can Put Off Until Next Week?

Image result for delay Just a few hours ago I made a pretty good case for breaking one of my rules.

That rule was to treat individual lots of shares in a given stock as individual positions.

Doing that means selling calls on each position based upon its own strike price and profit goals.

I had my eyes on adding more shares of Marathon Oil today if it tested the $15.50 level.

With a $16.50 strike expiring this afternoon on shares that had a $15.60 break even, the idea was that if I did add more shares of Marathon Oil I would just combine the 2 lots, which happened to be of equal size and then look to sell $16 strikes on Monday. Continue reading “Why Do Today What You Can Put Off Until Next Week?”

March 17, 2017

Torn Between Two Lovers

Image result for torn between two lovers Does anyone remember this song from Mary MacGregor?

It raised a few eyebrows when it came out almost 41 years ago.

Putting fantasies aside for a moment, I’m torn between two loves at the very same moment, sitting here wondering what comes next.

That wonderment isn’t unusual. There isn;yt a day, and I don’t think there hasn’t been a day that I can recall when that wonder wasn’t in abundance.

Now that rates have risen for the second time in 3 months and as it seems that there is some ambivalence about continuing that post-election rally, I’m torn between the financing goals that appeal to me the most. Continue reading “Torn Between Two Lovers”

March 3, 2017

Retail Me Yes

About 5 years ago, maybe a little less, but at this point I don’t feel a sense of obligation to go through my data, I was way over invested in retail.

As someone who really does believe in diversity, I wasn’t too happy about carrying that much retail liability, especially as those shares weren’t faring too well.

Like just about everything else, there are periodic ups and downs.

Individual stocks behave that way, as do sectors.

Markets, too.

Continue reading “Retail Me Yes”

March 2, 2017

If You Like Uncertainty……

If you like uncertainty, you may really love what’s ahead.

Of course, no one ever knows what is ahead, but I’m certain that it won’t be as certain as the market’s climb since Election Day.

Coming on the heels of Wednesday’s 300 point gain, today’s triple digit loss was muted, unless you were in metals and perhaps energy.

Those two certainly helped me out a lot in 2016 and had been pretty good to me in 2017, as well.

I put quite a bit of money into retailers in the past two weeks following the post-earnings swoons in L Brands, Target and Best Buy.

Abercrombie and Fitch, on the other hand, was just a lucky call, as it didn’t nosedive after poor numbers.

There was one other trade in the week that I didn’t report, because it was made in the final minute of trading on Tuesday and it didn’t involve the immediate sale of call contracts.

That was for Las Vegas Sands, which subsequently soared on Wednesday at which time I did sell some weekly calls, only to watch those shares give up much of their gain today.

But that’s the theme of what I really want to talk about.

If you don;t quiver too much, there have been some really good opportunities in some down beaten stocks.

You may have followed my recent trades in and out of Cliffs Natural Resources, for example. Continue reading “If You Like Uncertainty……”

February 28, 2017

Back From Vacation

This may be a little hard to believe, but the past 2 weeks have been the first “real” vacation that I’ve taken since retirement.

That “retirement” was about 6 years ago.

While I have gone away during that time, including a nice trip to England, at which time I had the good fortune of surviving a heart attack, I never had my laptop away from my side.

My wife still jokes about how I was unplugging monitors in the hospital to plug in that laptop and cellphone.

I don’t find it as funny as she does, however.

One of the really nice things about having pivoted away from the old subscription service (I can’t use its name for a year) is that I don’t really have any obligation to write something every day.

And so, I didn’t for the past 2 weeks. Continue reading “Back From Vacation”

February 10, 2017

Taking Possession

Usually, when I sell puts, I’m not that enamored of the possibility of taking possession of shares.

Really, all I care about, whether buying shares or selling puts is just how much income I can generate from the position and how much risk is associated with the income production.

When selling puts, I especially like being able to roll them over, just like has been the case recently with Cliffs Natural Resources, where I have some puts that expire next week and that have been rolled over since mid-December, or so.

During that time there were more than a few occasions at which it was looking pretty bleak, but as with most stock positions, if you can wait long enough the good becomes bad and the bad becomes good.

Sometimes, though, it does make sense to take possession. Continue reading “Taking Possession”

February 6, 2017

Slim Pickings

After last Friday’s best gain for the year, the market is less than 0.5% from its all time high level.

When you get to those kinds of markets, one of three things is likely.

There’s plenty of evidence that shows that new highs beget new highs.

There’s also plenty of evidence that shows that new highs make traders nervous and they lead to profit taking.

It’s hard to go onto new highs if others are cashing in their chips.

Then, there’s always the possibility of treading water while most are just trying to see what the next guy is doing.

As all of this is unfolding, there’s reason to believe that the first possibility has already become true.

We tested and then surpassed the 20,000 level and on the way toppled record after record.

Lately, though, we’ve been treading water, but what we really haven’t seen is much in the way of profit taking.

If you were to listen to all of the talking heads, what we’re in store for right now is the Trump Correction that all expect to come after the Trump Rally.

I have no clue, but what I do know is that as I collect more cash, it’s getting harder and harder to find anything that seems worth buying. Continue reading “Slim Pickings”

January 31, 2017

Well, That Was Rare

At a tie that I really want to be conserving cash, I find myself doing odd things.

Saturday night and then again on Sunday, I actually thought about buying options.

In this case, that alone was pretty odd.

What wasn’t odd was that the thought was to buy S&P 500 puts.

They were really pretty inexpensive, reflecting the continuing belief that volatility was extinct and that the market was expecting to go higher and higher.

Well, long story short, I didn’t buy those options.

But I did spend money, even though that’s not so rare.

What was rare is that this morning, before the opening bell, I bought some shares of Under Armour, after it plunged on earnings and the news that its CFO was leaving.

What made that exceptionally rare was that by making that purchase before the opening bell, there was no opportunity to sell calls at the same time.

So that shares sat there naked. Continue reading “Well, That Was Rare”

January 30, 2017

Going to Cash

Well, for a minute, anyway.

I did close 2 positions today, one for a substantial loss.

That was Joy Global, which for the longest time has been ready to close on a deal to be bought out.

That has really been dead money, but I kept thinking that maybe someone or somebody else would come along and sweeten the offer, especially as the economy was eventually going to improve in China.

But suddenly, there has been a lot of selling of those shares by institutional holders, so I gave up and took the cash.

The same for that EMC spin-off after the buyout from Dell.

That one, at least had a decent profit. Continue reading “Going to Cash”