TheAcsMan

January 8, 2017

It Really Shouldn’t Come As a Surprise

suprise There’s really no reason to be surprised, but I woke up this morning realizing that earnings season has to be starting soon.

As if it ever really ended.

What really makes things different this quarter is that Alcoa, even though it has now been out of the DJIA for a little while, is no longer the official/unofficial start to earnings season.

The official start of earnings season honors went to JP Morgan after Alcoa left the DJIA, but Alcoa still came first.

No more.

This week, earnings start for real on Friday morning, with JP Morgan getting things started and Alcoa doesn’t announce until a full 11 days later.

It’s a whole new world order.

tweet I was greeted this fine snowy Sunday morning with a very nice Tweet.

What was also very nice was not having to write an article in a rush to meet an unclear deadline in order to get potentially time sensitive material posted.

Or, for that matter, writing it at all.

My response to the Tweet was that 300 of those articles was enough and so I then did what was the only seemingly natural thing. Continue reading “It Really Shouldn’t Come As a Surprise”

January 5, 2017

Will Common Sense Make a Comeback?

I didn’t vote for Donald Trump, but I really can’t wait until he steps into the Oval Office.

It’s not that I suddenly find myself agreeing with whatever Donald Trump believes, although it is hard to tell what he really believes, it’s just that I think that he will bring out the best in people.

He will do that at the same time that he has shown that he can bring out the worst in people.

You can’t disagree with Hillary Clinton’s reference to “deplorables,” although you would really have to question both her estimate of how many of Trump’s supporters really did fit into that category, as well as simply questioning her judgment in making the comment, itself.

By the same token, there are clearly “deplorables” on the other side of the political spectrum and in that group I might include those who have a hard time accepting the fact that Donald Trump will be our next President.

My father used to always say that “money brings out the best in people and the worst in people.”

For years, I thought that his lack of command of English as a language caused him to use the conjunction “and” when he really meant “or.”

It was only a few years ago that I realized that he said exactly what he meant.

Money can bring out both the best and the worst in someone and I think that Donald Trump will do the same with our elected officials.

Some, unfortunately, will feel even more emboldened to act in a ridiculous manner, while others are going to realize that the only way to move the nation forward is to come to some reconciliation across the aisle.

Remember when there were actually moderates in both parties who could stand one another professionally and personally?

Donald Trump may be the enzyme that brings them back together again.

Continue reading “Will Common Sense Make a Comeback?”

January 4, 2017

Santa Steals Away Joy from Retailers

santaclaus Following a pretty good day today, where we really did come close to the mystical 20,000 level of the DJIA,. there was a big surprise after the closing bell.

The surprise that came can give you just a little idea of how well anyone really knows what’s truly going on.

If you were following the market today, you may have noticed that national retailers were really strong.

In fact, I took the opportunity to sell some calls on a couple of lots of Macy’s shares that have been sitting around uncovered for the past week or so.

I like to at least consider selling calls, even if the strike price isn’t something to really make me salivate, as long as the shares are moving strongly at the time.

That described Macy’s, as it was more than $1 higher earlier in the trading session.

While I didn’t think about selling calls on Coach, Kohls, nor Abercrombie and Fitch, they too were all strongly higher during the day.

You may also remember that I sold calls on The Gap, yesterday.

Then a funny, well maybe not too funny thing happened after the close.

The bottom fell out as Macy’s and others reported the not so good Christmas sales news.

Sales stunk.

Not only did sales stink, but guidance was moved lower.

How could that be? Especially as the economy is supposedly heating up?

So we await tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report and will be left to wonder, if the news continues to be good, just where people are spending their money.

The obvious answer is that they’re doing it on Amazon or they’re just not spending it on old fashioned things like sweaters and place settings.

Maybe they’re spending it on streaming data plans. Continue reading “Santa Steals Away Joy from Retailers”

January 4, 2017

January 2017 Trades

EFFECTIVE FEBRUARY 1, 2017, MONTHLY TRADES AT A GLANCE WILL NOW BE ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THE MAIN MENU USING THE “MONTHLY TRADES” PULLDOWN

January 3, 2017

Let the Partying Begin

partyfavor What a way to start the new year.

Not even close to the way 2016 started, but then again, 2016 wasn’t all that bad.

Right?

For a little while it looked as if 2017 was going to start off with a major disappointment as the market decided to do something that it hadn’t done for a while.

In fact, it hasn’t really happened since we accepted the fact that we were getting someone very unexpected as our new President.

What happened today was that the stock market actually followed oil, again.

That was the story for most of 2016 and the story worked out pretty well, as long as you didn’t sell your oil losers in 2015, or repeatedly went back to the literal and figurative well in pursuit of the gains.

Even though there wasn’t too much evidence that the rise in oil prices was actually tied to increasing demand, the stock market just looked at a year of slowly, if not steadily increasing oil prices, as a good thing.

Who would have guessed? Continue reading “Let the Partying Begin”

December 24, 2016

Weekend Update – December 25, 2016

It’s the end of the world as we know it

…And I feel fine.

Whoever thought that we would live to see the day that the President-Elect would be running a parallel foreign policy?

Whoever thought we would live to see the day that Republicans were cozying up to the Russian government while the Democrats were sounding the siren?

Then again, did anyone really believe that Great Britain would split from the European Union?

Maybe it really is the end of the world as we know it.

The one good thing is that as best as we can project, life in a post-apocalyptic world will probably be characterized by lower tax rates.

That can only add to the feeling fine sensation and I certainly look forward to the little considered benefits of an apocalypse.

While the world may not be ending, 2016 is coming to an end and after a very palpable post-election rally, it’s not very clear where we go next.

I certainly don’t know where I go next.

In less than a month populism meets reality and the direction may become more clear. At the moment, the only thing that really is clear is that populism is a world wide phenomenon, which means that lots of world-wide enemies are being identified to account for all of the ills any particular society may be experiencing.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

December 17, 2016

Weekend Update – December 18, 2016

A long time ago there was a reasonably popular song by a group that itself was reasonably popular at a time when Disco was dying, Punk Rock had out-grown its shock factor and Heavy Metal and long hair bands were taking root.

In that vacuum anything could have become reasonably popular and so it was that everyone was humming the tune of the song that cried out for the need for a new drug.

I always wondered why the lyrics didn’t include the requirement for a drug that won’t quit, as that’s the ultimate problem for anyone seeking to be taken to a better place through the modern miracle of chemistry.

At some point we develop a kind of tolerance to stimuli, to feelings and even to drugs. That’s why we always keep searching for something new. What was once good, or at least good enough, just quits on us.

Even when we may not fall prey to the human desire for more, bigger and better, we at least want to get the same kick at a bare minimum and we can’t possibly tolerate a drug or an emotion that quits on us.

This past week we came to a point when the FOMC sort of quit. It really didn’t take us any place new, even as it did finally take some action.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

December 10, 2016

Weekend Update – December 11, 2016

There are so many ways to look at most things.

Take a runaway train, for example.

The very idea of a “runaway train” probably evokes some thoughts of a disaster about to happen.

Following this past week’s 3.1% gain in the S&P 500, adding to the nearly 4.3% gain since the election result that most everyone thought to be improbable, the market may be taking on some characteristics of a runaway train.

But I don’t really think too much about the inevitable crash that ensues when the train does leave the tracks.

As every physics fan knows, the real challenge behind a runaway train is getting all of that momentum under control.

I don’t think about that, either, though.

What I do think about is trying to understand how to look at momentum.

Momentum, of course, is simply the product of the object’s mass and its velocity.

Mass, of course is nothing more than the force exerted by that object divided by its acceleration.

Acceleration, of course is nothing more than the derivative of an object’s velocity.

So, I like to look at momentum as an expression of the product of an object’s force and its velocity, while at the same time dividing by rate of change in that velocity.

In other words, depending upon how you look at things makes all the difference in the world.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

December 4, 2016

Weekend Update – December 4, 2016

It’s hard to say what really came as more of a surprise.

The fact that we have a President-Elect Trump or the fact that OPEC actually came to something of an agreement this past week.

When it has come to the latter, we’d seen any number of stock market run-ups in anticipation of an OPEC agreement to limit production of crude oil in an effort to force the supply-demand curve to their nefarious favor.

Had you read the previous paragraph during any other phase of your lifetime, you would have basically found it non-sensical.

But in the past 18 months or so, we’ve been in an environment where the stock market looked favorably on a supply driven increase in the price of oil.

So when it seemed as if OPEC was going to come to an agreement to reduce production earlier in the year, stocks soared and then soured when the agreement fell apart.

Unable to learn from the past, the very next time there was rumor of an OPEC agreement stocks soared and then again soured when the predictable happened.

This week, however, everything was different.

Maybe better, too.

Or maybe, not.

What was not better was that OPEC actually came to an agreement, although you can’t be blamed if you withhold judgment in the belief that someone will cheat or that U.S. producers might be enticed to increase production as prices rise.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

November 25, 2016

Weekend Update – November 27, 2016

For anyone who is capable of remembering the sentiment that pervaded markets less than 3 weeks ago, the continuing shattering of stock market records day after day has to come as a surprise.

For those that had the conviction of their opinions, and there were some very prominent people expecting a sell-off in the event of a Trump victory, you have to wonder whether it was worse to miss out on the rally or worse to have been so wrong while in the public eye.

As that watchful eye looked at the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000, all ended the week closing at their all time highs.

Do you remember what happened when the FBI announced that they were looking into some emails discovered on a laptop owned by one of Hillary Clinton’s top aides? Do you then remember what happened when the all clear was then given just days ahead of the election?

The conventional wisdom was that the uncertainty associated with the unpredictability of a Trump Administration was the antithesis to what the stock market needed to move higher.

That conventional wisdom was certainly reflected in the stock market’s exaggerated movements.

Do you remember the worldwide overnight plunges when it appeared as if Donald Trump would emerge victorious?

And then a funny thing happened.

After a quick 500 point gain in the DJIA when all of those earlier convictions were thrown out the window, the market has just had a slow and steady climb higher.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha