Weekend Update – October 4, 2015

If you’re a parent, even if 50 years have passed since the last episode, you can probably still remember those wonderful situations when your child was having a complete meltdown, even as the kid really didn’t know what it is that they wanted.

Sometimes a child can get so out of control over something that they wanted so badly that even when finally getting it, they just couldn’t regain control. We’ve all seen kids carry on as if there was some horrible void being perceived in their lives that was still gaping and eating away at their very core even when their immediate issue had already been resolved.

I think that’s the only way to explain the market ups and downs that we’ve been seeing, starting from the week of the most recent FOMC Statement release and all the way through to the last trading day of the past week.

The market has gone from a condition of apoplexy over the very thought of an interest rate hike to a melt down when that very same interest rate hike didn’t materialize.

Whether the moves have been up or down the rational basis has become more elusive and knowing what to do in response has been difficult. It’s been a little bit easier to simply accept the fact that there is such a phenomenon as “the terrible twos” and just ride out the storm.

Trying to understand that kind of behavior is tantamount to trying to use rational thought processes when dealing with a child in the midst of an uncontrollable outburst.

Sometimes it’s just best to ignore what you see unfolding before your eyes and let events run their course. That may not be a call for total passivity, though, and completely giving up on things, but the belief that you can outsmart or out-think a rampaging child or a rampaging market is destined for failure.

Followings Friday’s 1.4% gain in the S&P 500 that index was down only about 8.7% from its summer time highs, after having been down as much as 11.9% after the first day of trading this past week.

In doing so, the market has continued its dance around that 10% correction line while having a regular series of irrational outbursts that have alternated between plunges and surges.

Like most parents, there is some pride that comes into play when a child finally is able to come to a stage in life when those uncontrollable and irrational outbursts have run their course. For most kids once they’ve gotten through that phase it never returns, although for some adults it may manifest itself in different ways.

I don’t know if this week is going to be that week when some pride is warranted, but at the very least the market took some time in-between its outbursts this week to collect itself. In doing so, it either continued to hover around that 10% correction line and avoided spiraling out of control or took some positive steps toward finally recovering from that correction.

It started with a 300+ point drop on Monday with almost nothing happening on Tuesday as it geared up for a 200+ point gain on Wednesday.

Then, it did virtually nothing again on Thursday, only to see the bottom drop out after some very disappointing Employment Situation Report numbers on Friday morning.

This time, “disappointing” meant employment numbers that were far lower than expected and lower revisions to the previous month.

Had the same numbers been put forward a few months ago they would have engendered elation, but now that market thinks it knows what it wants and as always, when it doesn’t get it there’s a tantrum at hand.

Then, suddenly, something just seemed to click, just a it occasionally does with a child. Sometimes it may simply be exhaustion or a realization of the futileness of demonstrable outbursts, but at other times a spark may get lit that creates a path to a greater understanding of things.

The morning turnaround on Friday occurred at that point at which the S&P 500 was approaching its lowest level since the correction began and had chartists scurrying to their charts to see where the next stop below awaited.

Instead, however, the S&P 500 climbed 3% from those depths having turned positive for the day by noontime and then continuing so soar even more.

Of course, while there may be some pride in what can be interpreted as a sudden realization of the unwarranted behavior in the morning, I always get wary of such large moves, even when they’re to my benefit. When seeing those kinds of intra-day reversals, my thoughts go from recognizing them as reasonably normal tantrums, to the less normal exhibition of a bipolar disorder.

With earnings season beginning at the end of this coming week, we may soon find out whether the market is capable of exhibiting some rational responses to real news.

I’m optimistic that those responses will be more appropriate than has been the case over the last 2 earnings seasons when the o

ption market had repeatedly under-estimated the magnitude of those responses.

Any sign that top line and bottom line numbers are both heading in the right direction may paint those disappointing Employment Situation Report numbers as an aberration. That could be just the spark we all need to get over the hump of interest rate worries and escape the developmental binds that throw us into fits of rage.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

I never get tired of doing the same thing over and over again. There may be a psychiatric diagnostic code for that sort of thing, but when it comes to stocks it can be a very rational way of behaving especially when those stocks start falling into a pattern of trading in a narrow price range.

However, if all those stocks did was to trade in that narrow range and didn’t have a moment of explosive behavior or two before returning to a more normal path, there would be no reason to consider owning them for any reason other than perhaps for the relative safety of their dividend income.

But those occasional moves higher and lower make the sale of calls worthwhile even when the shares are seemingly moribund. Both General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) are recently exhibiting the kind of behavior that can generate a very respectable return, both in relative and absolute terms, especially if the opportunity presents to buy shares on a serial basis following share assignment.

I had 2 lots of General Electric assigned this past week and would be very willing to own them for the sixth time in 6 weeks. However, following its late day turnaround on Friday, along with the rest of the market, I would probably only do so if its price came closer to $25.

With a remaining lot of shares and options set to expire this week, I would still have an eye on selling new weekly calls, but if requiring rollover at the end of the week, I would consider bypassing the cycle ending week of October 16th, and perhaps selling extended weekly calls, as General Electric will report earnings that morning.

I now own 2 lots of Bank of America and three lots at any one time is my self imposed limit, but trading at the $15.50 level has a relative feeling of safety for me. As with General Electric, however, if purchasing or adding shares, there is that little matter of upcoming earnings. While most likely beginning the process with a weekly call, if requiring a rollover as being faced with expiration rather than assignment, I would probably opt to bypass the October 16 expirations in the event of some poorly received news on earnings.

Poorly received news is an apt way to describe anything emanating from China these days. While there are lots of potential “poster child” examples of the risks associated with any stock that has exposure in China, among the more respected names has to be caterpillar (NYSE:CAT).

For many rational reasons, well known short seller Jim Chanos laid out his short thesis on caterpillar nearly 30 months ago and following a substantial move higher, the virtue of patience has begun to start its rewards.

With shares now down about 40% from a year ago, there’s still no telling if this is the bottom, but a constellation of events has me considering a position.

With its ex-dividend date the next week and then earnings the following week and a weekly option premium that reflects the near term risk, I’m ready to consider that risk.

If selling a weekly option doesn’t look as if it will result in an assignment, I would probably consider trying to roll over those options to the ex-dividend week, but with a mind toward giving up that dividend by selling a deep in the money call option in an effort to collect some additional premium, but to be out of shares prior to earnings.

Failing that, however, the next step would be to attempt to roll over those shares and again selecting an expiration date that bypasses the immediate threat of earnings and then holding on tightly as one of the least respected CEOs over the past few years may again be in people’s cross-hairs.

YUM Brands (NYSE:YUM) reports earnings this week and as ubiquitous as their locations may be in the United States, it’s almost always their Chinese holdings that get the attention of investors.

Following a strong move higher on Friday, I would be reluctant to start the week by selling puts on YUM shares, as it reports earnings Tuesday afternoon, unless there is some significant giveback of those weekending gains. At the moment, the option market is implying a price move of about 5.7%.

A 1% ROI could potentially be obtained through the sale of a weekly put at a strike level 6.7% below Friday’s close, but that may be an insufficient cushion, given YUM’s earnings history, even when the CHinese economy has not been so highly questionable. However, in the event of some price pullback prior to earnings or a large price drop after earnings, I would consider a posit

ion.

In the event of a large pullback after earnings, however, rather than selling puts, as I might usually want to do, YUM is expected to have its ex-dividend date the following week, so I might consider the purchase of shares and the sale of calls. But even then, depending on the prevailing option premiums, I could possibly consider sacrificing the dividend for the premiums that could come from selling deep in the money calls and possibly using an extended option expiration date.

Equally ubiquitous, at least in some portions of the United States is Dunkin Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN). Following a disastrous reception on Thursday to their forward guidance and the barely perceptible rebound the following day, this is a stock that I’ve wanted to repurchase for nearly a year.

With only monthly options available and without a wide assortment of strike levels, this may be a good position to consider a longer term option sale, as it reports earnings at the beginning of the November 2015 cycle and will likely have its ex-dividend date in the November or December cycle.

During this latest downturn, I’ve had a more profound respect for trying to accumulate dividends, especially as the increased volatility has created option premiums that subsidize more of the dividend related price drop in shares. In doing so, sometimes there may be just as good opportunity in trying to induce early assignment of shares by selling deeper in the money calls that you usually might do in a lower volatility environment and using an extended option timeframe.

Both Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) may benefit from those approaches, although when the size of the dividend is larger than the strike price unit, such as in the case of Verizon, the advantage is a bit muted.

However, with Verizon reporting earnings on October 20th, some consideration might be given toward selling an in the money option expiring on that date, in an effort to get the larger, earnings enhanced premium, even while potentially sacrificing the dividend.

Oracle doesn’t offer the same generous dividend as does Verizon, nor does it have earnings immediately at hand.

It can be approached in a much more simplistic fashion in an attempt to capture both the dividend and the option premium by considering a sale of a call hovering near the current price. because it is ex-dividend on a Friday, there may be some opportunity to enhance the yield by selling an extended weekly option, again, possibly risking early assignment, but atoning for some of that with some additional premium

Finally, how can there be anything good to say about Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF)? I’ve been practicing Chanos like patience on a much more expensive lot of shares, but in the meantime have found some opportunity by buying shares and selling calls in the $20-22 range.

Having now done so on 4 occasions in 2015 it nay be time to do so again as it closed in at the lower end of that range. With its earnings due relatively late in the current cycle this position can be considered either through the sale of puts or as a buy/write.

Traditional Stocks: Caterpillar, Dunkin Donuts, General Electric

Momentum Stocks: Abercrombie and Fitch, Bank of America

Double-Dip Dividend: Oracle (10/9 $0.15), Verizon (10/7 $0.565)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: YUM Brands (10/6 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.